Yes, I know that the runoff election for Saxby Chambliss’s seat hasn’t even been decided yet, but that doesn’t mean we can’t also look ahead to 2010, as our friends at Public Policy Polling are doing today.
According to PPP’s latest poll, frosh GOP Senator Johnny Isakson seems pretty unknown, sporting only a 30-25 approval rating (with a whopping 44% saying “not sure”). PPP was also kind enough to give us a look at some numbers of Isakson against two strong Democrats on Georgia’s bench (11/22-23, likely voters):
Thurbert Baker (D): 39
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 45Jim Marshall (D): 38
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±3.3%)
I have my finger in this pie, as these match-ups were my suggestions. Not that I think either Marshall, who seems to be settling into his R+8 district, or Baker, Georgia’s African-American Attorney General, are likely to run, but it’s worth seeing how well Johnny would do against a pair of Democrats that at least some people have heard of in the state. And, sure enough, neither of these leads are particularly formidable, though Isakson still has two years to get his ass in gear (if he really needs to).
While Isakson isn’t one of the more obvious targets for Dems in 2010, perhaps there’s some potential here for a ambitious candidate to make a name for themselves in a race like this. After all, few thought that Jim Martin had much of a shot in his race this year, and he polled very poorly against Chambliss at the start of his campaign.
Whenever I tell people that we could legitimately win this Senate seat people scoff and say Isakson is unbeatable. Well I hope this and further polls prove otherwise. My pick for this race is Super- Attorney Jim Butler out of Columbus. He’s a brilliant guy who could self-fund and we wouldn’t have to give up any of our House seats. But then maybe Michael Thurmond, who is the current Department of Labor Commissioner.
First, our two vulnerable incumbents survived a GOP redistricting in 2006, then went on to win easily this year. Then we cut Kerry’s 17 point loss to only 5 points, an improvement even more stunning than Obama’s national 7 point victory compared to Kerry’s 2 point loss. It’s rapidly growing and all those new voters aren’t interested in reactionaries like Isaakson. Basically, Georgia is a step behind North Carolina, and a couple steps behind Virginia, but it’s coming our way.
Isn’t solid for the GOP any more? Oh my. Georgia needs to stay on our minds. It’s purpling fast!
General Assembly candidates are listed on the ballot with the candidate from the governor’s party going first. This alone gives them an advantage, and have helped, for example, Katie Dempsey survive Bob Puckett’s challenges in 2006 and 2008.
We also need some part of the redistricting tri-fecta. Without it, the Republicans will try to gerrymander the hell out of Barrow and Marshall’s districts and make the new district(s) we get Republican. If we can get at least some say in it, we can hopefully at least get an incumbent protection agreement.
Neither Baker nor Marshall seem like they’d be big helps politically in the Senate. Marshall has been infuriating as a member of the House. However, having them at the Governor’s mansion might be more palpable.
Also, I’m still skeptical about Isakson’s vulnerability. He’s much less controversial than Chambliss and Georgia, at least for now, is still a red state. I may be more bullish if Martin and Powell can pull it off, but if we can’t beat Chambliss, I don’t see us beating Isakson.
A lot of people think that 2010 will follow historical patterns and be an anti-ruling party year, especially at the federal level. If that turns out to be so, then I definitely don’t see Isakson losing.
And winning an open seat at the state level would seem to be easier for a Democrat than knocking off a fairly popular incumbent at the federal level.